Built on Polymarket’s own settlement record

Find the traders who
actually know what they’re doing.

Paste any Polymarket wallet and find out whether its record is real skill or a run of good luck — then, if the evidence holds up, copy its trades automatically. Anyone can get lucky. We tell you the difference.

Five wallet analyses free, no card. Watch one run below.

Live analysis
   
Profit on Polymarket $0

 

 

Every figure below is measured, never predicted.

Three real shapes a record can take. The middle one is the usual answer — including for wallets showing enormous profit.

30+settled markets before we’ll judge
Mosttop traders fail our bar
Provenwallets only, for real money

A big profit doesn’t always mean a good trader

Some Polymarket traders make enormous amounts of money. The problem is that you cannot tell from profit alone whether they are genuinely good or simply got lucky. Someone who turned $10,000 into $100,000 might have real skill — or might have made a few risky bets that happened to land.

In markets that pay all-or-nothing, one three-cent winner can outweigh a hundred losses. A spectacular record and a coin that landed well look identical from the outside.

So we look at how they made it, not how much

When a trader enters a market, the price they pay tells you how likely that outcome was at the time. Buy ten outcomes at 30¢ and you should win about three. So instead of asking did this trader make money, we ask the question that survives:

Did they win more often than their own prices said they should?

Winning six of those ten is the one thing stake size and long-odds luck cannot manufacture. It is the difference between a profitable wallet and a skilled one.

Paste a wallet. Get a verdict in plain words.

We read its entire settled history, resolve every market against Polymarket’s own record, and return one of five answers — with the arithmetic beside it.

  • Edge detected — they beat their own entry prices by more than luck comfortably explains. Rare.
  • Ahead, but within luck — better than their prices, but not by enough to be sure. Interesting, not conclusive.
  • No detectable edge — they win about as often as their prices imply. The usual answer, including for wallets up hundreds of thousands.
  • Worse than the prices they pay — they have lost to their own entry prices.
  • Not enough history — under 30 settled markets. Nothing honest can be said yet, so we say that instead of guessing.

Alongside it: markets settled, wins against expected, the edge in standard deviations, how long their markets typically take to resolve, how much of their activity is too fast to copy, and whether the whole result collapses without their single best market.

Point it at your own wallet too

This is the feature nobody else offers and the one people keep coming back for, because no one can judge their own record from the inside. Wins are memorable, samples are small, and everyone believes they are above average. We will tell you when yours is too small to mean anything — which is usually the true answer.

A leaderboard ranked on evidence, not profit

Polymarket already shows you who made the most money. We screen its top traders every few hours and rank them on whether they beat their own prices, raising the bar to account for how many we examined — look at forty wallets and one or two clear an ordinary threshold by chance alone.

And we do not force a winner. Some weeks nobody clears the bar, and we say so rather than dress a lucky trader up as a skilled one. The ones that fail are listed with the reason, which is usually the more interesting read.

Test it before you risk anything

Found a wallet you like? Don’t copy it yet. Follow it with notional money against real live prices and see what the strategy would actually have done — what you would have made, how often you would have won, your worst drawdown, and how much of the result rests on one lucky market.

You can also replay a wallet’s real history through your own rules. Every result carries a luck-concentration panel: the same number without the best trade, without the best three, and how many trades carry the entire profit.

Then, if the evidence holds, copy them automatically

Once a wallet has cleared the bar you can connect a dedicated trading wallet and mirror its activity, sized to limits you set. You choose the bankroll, the scale, and the caps.

By default we only place real orders behind wallets that cleared the bar. Anything else stays in simulation, so you cannot end up copying an unproven wallet by accident or by forgetting to check.

If you have read the verdict and want to follow one anyway, you can turn that off in Settings. It is your money and your call. We built the measurement first so that the decision is an informed one — not so that we could make it for you.

Why we built it this way

The obvious product was simpler: find profitable wallets, copy them, hope they keep winning. We built that first. Then we tested it.

Across 3,532 settled markets, the wallets we tracked won 2,104 times. Their own entry prices implied about 2,087. That difference is nothing at all.

They made money. Their results showed no measurable edge. So we did not ship it — we shipped the measurement that told us not to, because that is the part with real value, and because you deserve to run it before you follow anyone.

What it costs

Free £0
  • 5 wallet analyses, no card
  • The full verdict and every figure behind it
  • The screened leaderboard
  • Simulator with notional money

Enough to check yourself and a couple of traders.

Pro £60/month
  • 200 analyses a day — screen properly instead of spot-checking
  • Deeper backtesting
  • Copy up to 10 wallets at once
  • Cancel any time, from Settings

Or pay once: £320 for six months, £570 for twelve.

Unlimited £90/month
  • Everything in Pro
  • Copy as many wallets as you like — no cap
  • Track an unlimited number of wallets
  • Higher backtest allowance

Or pay once: £480 for six months, £860 for twelve.

Wallets already scored stay readable whatever plan you are on, so the leaderboard keeps working after your free analyses are gone.

What this is not

It is not advice and it is not a prediction. Every figure describes settled history. A trader who has shown an edge can stop having one; markets change and strategies stop working. Clearing our bar is not a promise that anything will work.

If you enable copying, use a separate wallet funded only with money you can afford to lose. You can lose some or all of it.

LockstepMarkets

At least 10 characters.

Free accounts run the bot in demo mode with paper money. Live copying requires a subscription.

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If an account exists for that address, a reset link is on its way. The link expires in 1 hour.

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Find out who is actually good — then, if you want, follow them.

LockstepMarkets

Subscription software that scores public Polymarket trading wallets on their settled history, and can mirror the ones you choose. Sold as a monthly or prepaid plan. Not advice, not a broker, not a fund.

Plans

Pro — £60/month, or £320 for six months, £570 for twelve.

Unlimited — £90/month, or £480 for six months, £860 for twelve.

There is a free tier. No card is needed to try it.

Cancelling

Cancel a subscription yourself in Settings, at any time. You keep access until the end of the period you have paid for and are not charged again. Prepaid periods never renew.

Refunds and full terms

Contact

hello@lockstepmarkets.com

Terms of Service

Privacy

Setup guide

Copying trades risks your money. You can lose some or all of what you put in. Past results, including ours, do not predict future results.

This needs a paid plan

Pro — £60/month

    Cancel any time from Settings. Wallets already scored stay readable on the free plan, so nothing you have looked at disappears.

    Read this before you sign up

    This explains exactly what the service does and doesn’t do. It’s short, and it matters.

    What this service does

    It reads publicly available Polymarket trading history and tells you whether a wallet’s record shows measurable skill, or whether it is consistent with luck. It also lets you follow wallets with simulated money to see what a strategy would have done.

    What it does not do

    • It does not predict what any market will do.
    • It does not tell you who to follow. It reports what the record shows and leaves the decision with you.
    • It does not place a real order behind any wallet that has not cleared the evidence bar, unless you deliberately switch that off in Settings having read the verdict.

    If you choose to copy with real money

    This is optional, off by default, and available only on a paid plan. By default it runs only for wallets that cleared the bar; you can choose to include ones that did not, and we will still tell you they did not. If you turn any of it on:

    • You must use a separate, dedicated wallet, funded only with money you are prepared to lose. Never your main wallet.
    • Your key is encrypted the moment it arrives and never displayed again. But the bot must decrypt it to place orders while you are away — so if our servers were compromised, that key could be exposed. We will never claim we cannot access it.
    • You set the limits and the bot will not exceed them. It will not protect you from a wallet that stops working.
    • You can lose money, including everything you put in.

    What our verdict actually means

    We ask whether a wallet has won more often than the prices it paid imply. That is a measurement of the past. A wallet that has beaten its prices may stop tomorrow — skill can fade, edges get competed away, and markets change.

    “Edge detected” is not a recommendation and not a forecast. It means the past record is unlikely to be luck alone. Nothing more.

    When we cannot tell you anything

    Most wallets do not have enough settled history for any honest conclusion. When that is the case we will say so rather than guess. “Not enough history” is a real answer and you will see it often.

    Simulated results are optimistic

    The simulator fills every order instantly at the price shown, in full, with no spread. Real trading does none of those things. Treat simulated performance as a test of your rules, not a forecast of returns.

    If you go on to trade

    Any trading you do is on Polymarket, with your own wallet, entirely outside this service. You can lose money, including everything you put in. We have no visibility into it, no control over it, and no responsibility for it.

    What we are not

    • We are not financial advisors. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation.
    • We do not guarantee accuracy, uptime, or that any conclusion will hold.
    • We are not affiliated with Polymarket.

    In one sentence

    This is a measurement tool. It tells you what the past record supports and, more often than you might expect, that it supports nothing at all.

    New to this? The setup guide walks through everything, from picking wallets to going live.

    Backend unreachable — retrying…
    Confirm your email address to finish setting up your account.
    LockstepMarkets DEMO
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    Setup guide FREE
    Equity
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    Cash
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    Total P&L
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    Win rate
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    Equity over time

    Paper account value, dashed line marks the starting balance.

    Open positions

    0
    MarketOutcomeSharesEntry NowValueP&L

    Recent activity

    Last 15 fills

      Track a wallet

      Tracked wallets

      0
      AddressLabelVerdictActive SeenCopiedLast trade

      Polymarket’s profit leaderboard

      Raw profit over the selected window — useful for finding candidates, but not a recommendation. Profit rewards stake size and luck at long odds. See Who to copy for these same traders scored on whether they beat their own entry prices.

      #TraderAddress P&LVolume

      Skill or luck?

      Paste any Polymarket wallet — someone else’s, or your own — and find out whether its record is evidence of judgement or the shape luck makes. Profit alone cannot tell you: it rewards big stakes and long-odds wins, and both look identical to skill from the outside.

      Your own Polymarket address works too — it is the only way to find out whether your results so far mean anything. Nothing is shared with the wallet’s owner; all of this is public on-chain data.

      How the verdict is reached

      If a wallet has no skill, the number of markets it wins should equal the sum of the prices it paid. Someone who buys ten outcomes at 30¢ should win about three. Winning materially more than your own prices imply is the one thing that cannot be explained by stake size, luck at long odds, or having more money.

      That difference is measured in standard deviations (z). We also demand:

      • Enough history. Under 30 resolved markets, nothing is measurable.
      • A bar that accounts for the search. Screen 40 wallets at the textbook threshold and one or two clear it by pure chance. The bar rises with the number screened, so a lucky wallet cannot float to the top.
      • An edge you can actually capture. Wallets whose edge sits in markets resolving within two hours are excluded — that is reaction speed, and you will always be seconds behind.
      • No single-market results. If removing their best market turns them negative, that was one bet, not a method.

      Clearing every bar still is not a promise. It means the evidence is strong enough to be worth your money and attention — not that the next month will look like the last one.

      Observed trades

      Every trade seen from tracked wallets, and what the bot decided. Refreshes every 8s.

      TimeWalletSideMarket OutcomePriceTheir sizeDecision

      Run a backtest

      Wallet scope

      Simulated fills at the copied wallet's own price — ignores slippage and delay, so real results would be somewhat worse.

      Running…

      0%

      Simulated equity curve

      Dashed line marks the starting balance.

      Simulated trades

      0
      TimeMarketOutcome EntryCopyResultP&L

      Account

      Admin
      Email—
      Plan—
      Member since—

      Trading filters

      Which markets the bot is allowed to copy into.

      Ignore copied trades older than this.

      Skip markets resolving sooner than this. Set to 6+ to exclude 5-minute and hourly markets, where the copied wallet's edge is reaction speed — something a copy bot can't reproduce. 0 copies everything.

      Skip if the market moved this far from their fill price. Applied as-is to markets closing within the hour, doubled under a day, tripled beyond — slow markets drift without the signal going stale.

      Ignore source trades smaller than this.

      Sizing

      Nothing is placed for real until this is set. Every real order is sized against this number, not your wallet balance, so it is the true ceiling. Leave it at 0 to block real orders entirely.

      Copy at X% of their size.

      Below this, skip the trade entirely.

      Hard cap on any single copied order.

      Cap for one market.

      Cap across all open positions.

      Behaviour

      How often the engine checks tracked wallets.

      Exit when a position is down this much.

      Exit our position when the copied wallet sells.

      Allow buying more of a token we already hold.

      Off by default, and we suggest leaving it off. With this on, real orders are placed behind wallets our own analysis says show no detectable edge. We measured that most profitable traders do not beat the prices they pay — and we will keep telling you so on every verdict. Turning this on means you have read that and decided anyway. Your money, your call.

      Use the stop loss percentage above.

      Demo account

      Starting balance—
      Created—

      Wipes all simulated positions, orders and P&L. Tracked wallets and settings are kept.

      Refer a friend

      Share your link. When someone subscribes, you both get a discount on your next invoice.

      Copying for real

      Locked

      Your plan

      Delete this account

      Removes your account, your tracked wallets, your simulated history and your stored trading key if you have one. Any Stripe subscription is cancelled first. This cannot be undone, and we cannot recover the account afterwards.

      Positions already open in your own Polymarket wallet are unaffected — they are yours and we never held them. Close them there first if you want them closed.

      Signup funnel

      Each step is a subset of the one above, so the drop-offs are the story.

      Can we take money?

      Signups

      New accounts per day.

      Engine load

      What the shared watcher is actually polling. Distinct wallets is the number that matters for Polymarket's rate limits, not follows.